000ABNT20 KNHC 152326TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Eastern Tropical Atlantic:Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further development is not expected.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.Northeastern Gulf of America and Offshore of the Southeastern U.S.:An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf of America and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Reinhart

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 16 Jul 2026 01:10:58 GMT

000ABPZ20 KNHC 152327TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands and several hundred miles southeast of Johnston Atoll. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form by Friday as the system moves slowly northwestward toward the vicinity of Johnston Atoll. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP91):A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable, and little if any additional development is expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend into early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high..80 percent.$$Forecaster Gibbs

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP5/EP052026)
  ...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 15 the center of Elida was located near 15.7, -114.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Elida

• Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 5
  Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 152038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026 ...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 114.6W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 114.6 West. Elida is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest and northwest over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so followed by a somewhat faster rate of intensification. Elida is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Katz/Papin]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 5
  Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2026 100 WTPZ25 KNHC 152038 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 116.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 119.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 122.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 115SE 80SW 95NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.4N 129.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 5
  Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026 The structure of Elida continues to slowly improve based on satellite observations. However, it does appear that some dry air and a bit of mid-level shear are impacting the growth of Elida at this time. Regardless, based on the improvement on satellite imagery, the subjective Dvorak estimate remaining at T3.0/45 kt, and objective intensity estimates ranging widely from 38 to 57 kt, the current intensity has been slightly increased to 45 kt. Based on the satellite observations, Elida is moving slightly north of the previous forecast track at 280/12 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge north of Elida should maintain this general motion through the remainder of the day. Afterwards, this ridge is expected to shift eastward as a weakness develops ahead of Elida, associated with a mid-latitude trough located off the California coast. This synoptic weather pattern should allow Elida to begin gaining more latitude by the end of this week as it gradually turns northwestward. This track should continue through early next week. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement early on, but across-track spread increases notably by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast was shifted a bit north and east based on a blend of the the GDMI, HCCA, and TVCN track guidance. The tropical storm remains over very warm waters with plenty of environmental moisture. However, mid-level shear appears to be undercutting the convective outflow, and this could be importing drier air from the north. Thus, short-term intensification is forecast to be slow. A faster rate of intensification could occur in 36-48 h if the storm develops a inner core. After 60 h, the tropical cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm with weakening expected to begin by this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast maintains the same 80-kt peak as the prior cycle, and is close to the peak intensity of HCCA, but still higher than the HAFS-A/B guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.7N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.8N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.3N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.0N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.9N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 19.0N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 25.4N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Katz/Papin]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
  Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2026 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 152039 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 115W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 8(53) X(53) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Jul 2026 21:21:48 GMT ]]>