000ABNT20 KNHC 151135TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Beven

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 12:50:22 GMT

000ABPZ20 KNHC 151136TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on recently upgraded Hurricane Trudy, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.South of Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the east to central portion of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Papin

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026)
  ...TRUDY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Oct 15 the center of Trudy was located near 12.9, -101.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Trudy

• Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 ...TRUDY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 101.6W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Trudy. Watches will likely be required later this morning for portions of these areas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 101.6 West. Trudy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn back toward the northwest this weekend. On the forecast track, Trudy is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Trudy is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through the weekend across Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Michoacan. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next day or so and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 150836 TCMEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 101.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 101.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...105NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.2N 102.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.1N 102.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.1N 103.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.5N 107.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 8
  Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 659 WTPZ41 KNHC 150838 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 AM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 Trudy's satellite presentation continues to improve, with an expanding central dense overcast containing cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees C and a curved convective band wrapping into the circulation from the north. Earlier microwave passes revealed improving inner-core organization, while a 0339 UTC MetOp-B scatterometer pass helped refine the cyclone's wind radii and structure. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.0/65 kt, which is consistent with the latest objective estimates. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt, making Trudy a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so as the mid-level ridge extending across central Mexico weakens in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of America. Some interaction with Tropical Storm Simon, a compact tropical cyclone located several hundred miles to the northwest, could also influence Trudy's steering. This pattern is expected to bring Trudy very close to the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico over the weekend, from near Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, before a rebuilding ridge to the north induces a westward turn away from the coast early next week. Considerable track uncertainty remains, particularly from days 4 to 5, when the guidance continues to show a significant amount of cross-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction through 72 h, with another slight adjustment to the north at days 4 and 5 as Trudy turns westward away from the coast. The forecast closely follows the latest HCCA and GDMI consensus aids. Environmental conditions remain quite favorable for significant strengthening during the next couple of days, with very low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and plenty of deep moisture surrounding Trudy. The continued improvement in Trudy's convective structure and inner-core organization suggests that the hurricane could be poised to undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI). This possibility is supported by the latest SHIPS RI guidance, which indicates a 28 to 40 percent probability of a 35-kt increase in maximum winds during the next 24 h, roughly four to six times the climatological mean. Although Trudy could briefly encounter lower ocean heat content associated with the wakes of previous tropical cyclones, oceanic conditions are forecast to become more favorable thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast calls for RI during the next 24 h, with Trudy expected to become a major hurricane by Friday, followed by additional strengthening through Saturday. By day 3, increasing vertical wind shear and the entrainment of drier mid-level air are expected to induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains above the guidance envelope during the next few days, then lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope thereafter. Trudy is forecast to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as a major hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds could reach portions of the coast as early as Saturday, and watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later this morning. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Trudy and be prepared to implement their hurricane plans. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later this morning. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend across Colima and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 12.9N 101.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 13.4N 101.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 14.2N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 102.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.1N 103.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 20.5N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
  Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 150837 PWSEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) 3(51) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 2(20) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 1(26) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 1(29) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 6(63) 1(64) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) 1(27) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 73(76) 2(78) X(78) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 3(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 14(33) X(33) 1(34) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS]]>
• Hurricane Trudy Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2026 09:27:28 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Simon (EP5/EP202026)
  ...SIMON NEARLY STATIONARY... ...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORM... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Oct 15 the center of Simon was located near 19.2, -108.5 with movement at mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Simon

• Tropical Storm Simon Public Advisory Number 32
  Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150839 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Simon Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 ...SIMON NEARLY STATIONARY... ...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 108.5W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to monitor Simon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.5 West. Simon is nearly stationary and is likely to move slowly and erratically through tonight. A northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Simon is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by late this weekend. Simon is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Through early Saturday, Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the state of Baja California Sur. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart]]>
• Tropical Storm Simon Forecast Advisory Number 32
  Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 487 WTPZ25 KNHC 150838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.3N 110.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART]]>
• Tropical Storm Simon Forecast Discussion Number 32
  Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150839 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 The satellite presentation of Simon has not changed much since the prior advisory. The center of the tropical storm remains embedded underneath a small, cold central dense overcast. No recent passive microwave data is available to assess the internal structure of Simon, but conventional satellite images indicate it is still a small storm. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 50 kt. This is based on a blend of the TAFB Dvorak estimate (T3.5/55 kt) and the latest UW-CIMSS objective estimates (43-52 kt), with some consideration given to the earlier aircraft data as well. Simon has been nearly stationary for the past few hours, but its longer-term motion has been a southwestward drift. The storm is likely to meander within very weak steering currents during the next 12-24 h. By Friday, the track models generally agree that Simon will turn northwestward on the east side of a cutoff low near the southwestern United States. This should bring the center of the compact tropical cyclone near but to the west of Baja California over the weekend. Based on the latest track guidance, the NHC forecast has been shifted slightly left of the previous prediction, in the direction of HCCA and closer to the TVCN simple consensus. Little change in strength is expected today while Simon meanders over warm waters and vertical wind shear over the storm gradually strengthens. Much stronger southwesterly shear is forecast on Friday and into the weekend, which should disrupt the vertical structure of the storm and introduce drier air into its circulation. The NHC forecast has once again trended weaker, following the latest multi-model consensus aids. Simon is predicted to lose organized convection and become post-tropical by 72 h. It would not be surprising if this occurs even sooner, as some models like the ECMWF and Google DeepMind show Simon dissipating late this weekend. Given the latest track forecast trends and the small size of Simon, wind watches are not needed for Baja California Sur at this time. Key Messages: 1. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to pass near or west of that area this weekend. 2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.2N 108.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.1N 108.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 20.5N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 21.3N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart]]>
• Tropical Storm Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
  Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150839 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART]]>
• Tropical Storm Simon Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2026 09:21:49 GMT ]]>