000ABNT20 KNHC 152326TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Eastern Tropical Atlantic:Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further development is not expected.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.Northeastern Gulf of America and Offshore of the Southeastern U.S.:An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf of America and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Reinhart

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 16 Jul 2026 02:47:22 GMT

000ABPZ20 KNHC 152327TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elida, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands and several hundred miles southeast of Johnston Atoll. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form by Friday as the system moves slowly northwestward toward the vicinity of Johnston Atoll. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP91):A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable, and little if any additional development is expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend into early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high..80 percent.$$Forecaster Gibbs

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP5/EP052026)
  ...ELIDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 the center of Elida was located near 15.4, -115.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Elida

• Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...ELIDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 115.2W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 115.2 West. Elida is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a northwestward motion beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Elida could become a hurricane by Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2026 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026 0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N 118.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.1N 126.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.5N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 6
  Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 796 WTPZ45 KNHC 160238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The satellite presentation of Elida has improved this evening. Earlier AMSR-2 passive microwave images showed a formative inner core could be taking shape over the eastern part of the circulation. Within the past few hours, new deep convection has developed much closer to the circulation center. Based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak classification (T3.5/55 kt) and UW-CIMSS objective estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The center of Elida has been adjusted a bit farther south of previous estimates using 20 UTC OSCAT wind data and the 37 GHz AMSR-2 imagery. Elida is moving westward (275 degrees) at 11 kt while being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north of the storm. An upper-level trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast to create a weakness in this steering ridge during the next few days. As a result, Elida is predicted to turn west-northwestward on Thursday and then move northwestward through the weekend. While there remains some cross-track model spread at later forecast periods, overall the models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous prediction from 48-120 h, following the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and in the direction of the latest Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. If convection continues to consolidate closer to the center of the storm, Elida may be able to solidify an inner core and quickly strengthen during the next day or two. The storm is embedded within a moist, unstable environment over 29-30 C waters, and the updated NHC forecast shows Elida becoming a hurricane by Thursday night and reaching a peak intensity of 80 kt in 48 h. This forecast trends on the higher side of the guidance, generally close to HCCA but lower than some of the statistical-dynamical aids (SHIPS/LGEM). Elida will reach much cooler waters by Saturday and then encounter a drier, higher shear environment through early next week. Thus, steady weakening is predicted from 60-120 h, and Elida is expected to lose organized convection and become post-tropical by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.7N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.2N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 23.1N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 25.5N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
  Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2026 741 FOPZ15 KNHC 160238 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026 0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 6(35) X(35) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) $$ FORECASTER REINHART]]>
• Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2026 02:40:43 GMT ]]>