Tropical Storm ALBERTO

• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...ALBERTO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 80.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.6N 79.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 77.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.2N 75.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 35.5N 72.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 80.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 6
  Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210238 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ALBERTO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT ON THE JACKSONVILLE DOPPLER RADAR. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND DOPPLER WIND DATA SUGGEST THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO ALBERTO MOVING OVER WARM WATERS ALONG THE GULF STREAM...BUT IN A MODERATE-TO- STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM LOSES ALL DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. ALBERTO HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING 180/4. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A PECULIAR PLACE WITHIN THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ALBERTO MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 30.5N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 30.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.5N 77.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 33.2N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 35.5N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 39.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
  Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 000 FONT11 KNHC 210238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 8 10 17 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 39 39 38 37 39 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 59 53 52 49 39 NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 2 4 5 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 3 4 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:39:03 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:39:41 GMT ]]>

Hurricane Local Statement(s)

• Hurricane Local Statement for Charleston, SC
  Issued at 956 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
• Hurricane Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL
  Issued at 609 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

Tropical Storm ALBERTO

• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Advisory 6 Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:38:17 GMT
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Advisory 6 Forecast Track (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:38:19 GMT
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Advisory 6 Forecast Cone of Uncertainty (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:38:19 GMT
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Best Track Information (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:21 GMT
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Best Track Information (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:21 GMT
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Information (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:21 GMT
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 21:04:07 GMT
• Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 21:04:05 GMT

Issued at  Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:35 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191556
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.  ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression TWO-E

• Tropical Depression TWO-E Public Advisory Number 1
  Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 210237 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.3N 99.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast/Advisory Number 1
  Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 210236 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 99.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 99.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 9.5N 100.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 10.2N 100.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.0N 101.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.0N 102.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.3N 99.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
  Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 210236 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 1 1 X 5 17 TROP DEPRESSION 36 15 8 4 2 9 15 TROPICAL STORM 61 76 66 47 27 34 34 HURRICANE 1 8 25 49 71 52 34 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 7 21 35 40 32 23 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 9 20 13 8 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 10 6 3 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 1 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 80KT 80KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) 8(33) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 9(36) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 9(34) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 7(24) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:38:05 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:43 GMT ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Advisory 1 Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:20 GMT
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Advisory 1 Forecast Track (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:21 GMT
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Advisory 1 Forecast Cone of Uncertainty (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:37:21 GMT
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Best Track Information (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:36:18 GMT
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Best Track Information (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:36:18 GMT
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Information (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:36:18 GMT
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 21:04:07 GMT
• Tropical Depression TWO-E Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 21:04:05 GMT

Issued at  Mon, 21 May 2012 02:36:52 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202337
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE